Minerals and technology

Critical-minerals export-control stress

A synthetic export-control stress across an assumed mineral, component, manufacturing, and infrastructure chain.

scenario onlysynthetic stressevidence required

Decision question

What is the value of diversification and additional evidence under a concentrated critical-mineral dependency?

Context-only public reference; all topology and numeric parameters are explicit model assumptions.

Generated bounds

Lower0.032894

Central0.032894

Upper0.101155

Dimensionless weighted stress under declared assumptions—not a realized-loss estimate.

Artifact identity

Nodes / edges: 5 / 4
Snapshot: 17e00ca4fafabe087d819e1e417f3d81d1ad9cc71a351a0595c7cbdcabc4164a
Observability: not cost effective

Context—not numeric evidence

2026 IEA Ministerial Declaration supporting critical-minerals security

This official/public page motivates the stress question. It does not provide the topology, weights, shock magnitude, intervention effects, or outcome labels.

Open International Energy Agency

Independent verification

Rebuild the complete evidence chain.

npm run cascadelens -- cases build critical-minerals-export-stress
npm run cascadelens -- verify content/cases/critical-minerals-export-stress/riskpack/

Download RiskPack